Over/Under Round of 16? What should the USA’s expectations be in Qatar?

We have come a loooong way since our failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, but exactly where the USA sit in the global pecking order of world football remains pretty unclear.

We won a handful of trophies in the last year or so and having absolutely dominated Mexico during that time, there is plenty of wind in our red, white and blue sails. But, we haven’t really played anyone notable outside of Concacaf other than Uruguay, who we played to a gritty 0-0 draw.

USA Celebrating their Nations League Victory over Mexico (Via CBS Sports)

So, given the question marks that remain, I think the easiest world cup prediction at this stage would be the “round of 16” take, and that’s certainly the viewpoint I’ve heard the most frequently.

I think we’re all in agreement that not making it out of the group stage would be a failure, but most are hesitant to predict a deep run into the knockout stages for the Americans in Qatar. So, the over/under seems to be set right there - the round of 16.

You taking the over? Or the under? (Via Dreamstime)

But let’s have a spine here - if the over/under is round of 16, what are we taking? Well, let’s look at how the US faired at our last three World Cups (that we participated in)

• 2014: Round of 16

• 2010: Round of 16

• 2006: Group Stage

So, it does seem like the 1st round of the knockout stage is the cutoff line for US success in recent years. But, where I think there’s room for optimism is when comparing the team we’ve assembled now compared to the teams we fielded back in 2010 and 2014.

The Starting XI for the USA vs Belgium in 2014 (Via Cutthemagic)

So, here’s who we were rockin’ with back in 2014 in our loss to Belgium. Ultimately, this became known as the “Tim Howard” game, where he broke (and still holds) the record for most saves ever in a World Cup match, with 16.

But other than having prime Tim Howard in goal, you could argue we have upgrades in pretty much every other position on the pitch when looking at our potential 2022 WC squad. I’d probably throw Clint Dempsey in the #9 today as well given how unproven we are at that position, but that’s about it.

Our wingers today being a choice between Christian Pulisic of Chelsea, Gio Reyna of Dortmund, Brendan Aaronson of Leeds, and Tim Weah of Lyon makes the idea of having Fabian Johnson and Alejandro Bedoya running the flanks feel like a weird fever-dream.

Some of the Talent in our Current Squad, and the Coldest Photo in Soccer (Via FoxSoccer)

And, the midfield upgrades are notable as well, with the likes of Weston McKenny, Tyler Adams, and Yunus Musah all getting significant minutes in top-5 leagues leagues, and dictating play impressively throughout their Concacaf careers.

So, if that 2014 squad was able to get out of the “group of death” in 2014, featuring the likes of Germany, Portugal, and Ghana, I bet this much improved (on paper) squad could get some results against our 2022 group of England, Iran and Wales…right?

But after the group stage, it all depends on who you draw in the knockout rounds. Sure, we could get a global powerhouse, but we could also get someone far more beatable than England, who I honestly fancy our chances against in group play.

So you know what? Let's be optimistic here. Let's be patriots here. I’m taking the over. I think we should make it out of the group stage, and I think we have a decent chance of winning a one-off knockout game against anybody. So, USA to the quarter-finals is my bet, and damn I hope that actually happens.